There is one thing that could derail Obama's re-election in light of Osama Bin Laden news. And that is if the the price action of commodity markets spread to equities. If we suffer from another bubble collapse going into next year trigger by the pop in Silver it could be a ugly 2012. Lets hope not though.
The CME raised margin requirements on Silver much like the Federal Reserve crushing the margins of the banks. Basically calling all loans used for purchase. De-leveraging the market much in the same way. This has called the margins of many other asset classes and created a ripple effect across the commodity complex.
If it continues through the hedge fund sphere it could de-leverage equity position being held on margin to capitalize on the our super low interest rate structure.
Boy if someone had a buddy in the CME that could have slipped them a tip I bet that person would have transferred all those billions of dollars seemingly lost by investors in the silver market through a derivate like say a put!!! But lets hope no one is that dishonest and we were not screwed again in another contrived market collapse;) Deflationary pressure from this still has to work its way through the system and related markets.
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Saturday, May 7, 2011
Monday, April 19, 2010
$GS Goldman Sachs: Sympton or Illness
Is Goldman Sach the illness or the symptom? I say its a symptom of a culture of greed that is a problem from the very top down. Doing dastardly things for a buck isn't new its just new the levels we are taking it to in the modern era are completely off the scales. If our leaders are stealing how can they really expect any different of those they govern.
Quick reminders:
George Bush and Dick Cheney (ex ceo: Haliburton) launched a false war in Iraq on lies which allowed "Tricky Dick" to get 100 Billion dollars of US taxpayer money into the hands of his former company with no competition along with compensating many private contractors that had ties to the President and his ilk.
Bernie Madoff Co-Founder of NASDAQ Stock Exchange and former Chairman of the NASD can you believe it stole $50 Billion dollars an even manage to damage some municipalities with his wide reaching greed.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (Ex CEO of GOLDMAN SACH) help to execute a bailout on AIG which actually served the purpose of flushing 60 + Billion dollars of the peoples money through AIG to his former company Goldman Sachs as the counter-party. GOLDMAN profited from our loses and had inside help in the goverment to get paid out.
GM's Ceo was being paid a whopping 14 million in his final year of destruction to the auto giant. Toyota's Grandson is still running his business and has the title of largest automaker in the world and is being paid $700,000........Wait what???? $14,000,0000 vs $700,000. How in the hell is that level of disparity present here especially considering GM would not be an ongoing concern without Government intervention.
Our Auto Manufacturers made a completely garbage product and sold it for as much as they could, as long as they could, and paid themselves as much as possible while destroying an original American industry and losing it to the country the USA actually drop two nuclear weapons on just 65 years ago. Really you lost to the Japanese, the guys we nuked, that wasn't enough of a competitive advantage for you to keep that American business a front runner......Really?
As in many of my before mention pieces corruption and greed in this country have been taken to new heights. From the Governments constantly spending and not accounting missing Billions of our dollars, to the Federal Reserves ratcheting around rates to create fiscal excesses and deficits to exploit as a counter-party to USA, and our Congress busy manipulating the legal system to benefit the highest corporate financier of their campaigns and maintain their own selfish interest above the public good....To say we have a crisis is a serious understatement.
It used to be said that some were willing to step over their dying mother for a buck. Now we have some willing to destroy the very celestial body they inhabit with the rest of their known species for a buck. This has to stop somewhere or we will fail as a civilization. Sounds dramatic I know, but at a population of 6 billion if we keep doing this, at some point we will not make it out of one of these contrived crisis.
Those at the top must be held accountable for criminality and moral turpitude. These crime affect million if not now billions. These people should suffer the harshest punishments we have to offer as a society to dissuade these types of behavior. With no real consequences for the "White Collar Bandits" how will you ever really stop this?
Quick reminders:
George Bush and Dick Cheney (ex ceo: Haliburton) launched a false war in Iraq on lies which allowed "Tricky Dick" to get 100 Billion dollars of US taxpayer money into the hands of his former company with no competition along with compensating many private contractors that had ties to the President and his ilk.
Bernie Madoff Co-Founder of NASDAQ Stock Exchange and former Chairman of the NASD can you believe it stole $50 Billion dollars an even manage to damage some municipalities with his wide reaching greed.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (Ex CEO of GOLDMAN SACH) help to execute a bailout on AIG which actually served the purpose of flushing 60 + Billion dollars of the peoples money through AIG to his former company Goldman Sachs as the counter-party. GOLDMAN profited from our loses and had inside help in the goverment to get paid out.
GM's Ceo was being paid a whopping 14 million in his final year of destruction to the auto giant. Toyota's Grandson is still running his business and has the title of largest automaker in the world and is being paid $700,000........Wait what???? $14,000,0000 vs $700,000. How in the hell is that level of disparity present here especially considering GM would not be an ongoing concern without Government intervention.
Our Auto Manufacturers made a completely garbage product and sold it for as much as they could, as long as they could, and paid themselves as much as possible while destroying an original American industry and losing it to the country the USA actually drop two nuclear weapons on just 65 years ago. Really you lost to the Japanese, the guys we nuked, that wasn't enough of a competitive advantage for you to keep that American business a front runner......Really?
As in many of my before mention pieces corruption and greed in this country have been taken to new heights. From the Governments constantly spending and not accounting missing Billions of our dollars, to the Federal Reserves ratcheting around rates to create fiscal excesses and deficits to exploit as a counter-party to USA, and our Congress busy manipulating the legal system to benefit the highest corporate financier of their campaigns and maintain their own selfish interest above the public good....To say we have a crisis is a serious understatement.
It used to be said that some were willing to step over their dying mother for a buck. Now we have some willing to destroy the very celestial body they inhabit with the rest of their known species for a buck. This has to stop somewhere or we will fail as a civilization. Sounds dramatic I know, but at a population of 6 billion if we keep doing this, at some point we will not make it out of one of these contrived crisis.
Those at the top must be held accountable for criminality and moral turpitude. These crime affect million if not now billions. These people should suffer the harshest punishments we have to offer as a society to dissuade these types of behavior. With no real consequences for the "White Collar Bandits" how will you ever really stop this?
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Closer look at $Gold
Gold shows a clean break out in its long term bull trend. Silver has failed to confirm this but could be lagging. There are a number of developments with the FED and China that is going to shape our next 2-5 years. I will go into further detail in a separate post.
A look at Silver $SLV
Silver is definitely lagging Gold on this break out. One of them is giving a false signal. In light of the Fed raising the discount rate and China reducing its demand for our debt. We have an ugly 2nd half of 2010 setting up. Fed anticipates withdrawing all of its stimulus by October 3rd 2010. All of these things will reduce paper currency in the system and reintroduce deflationary forces.
If Silver can take out the high it will probably run for miles...and to me that would signal the end of our currency.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
The FED's New Time Bomb
A rising tide lifts all ships. It seems we are seeing something we have already seen before. Gold, stocks, Bonds are all rising in sync with one another as the US dollar takes a bath. The same lax monetary policy that fueled the stock bubble of the late 90s and the housing disaster just recently is in effect once again under the disguise of stimulus. Now with a 0% interest rate policy we have take Japan's place as a funding currency.
How many times can we make the same mistakes. It is inconceivable that a crisis created from too much debt would find a solution to the problem using, yup you guess it, even more debt. This is beyond asinine. Just look at Japan did it work? Absolutely not!
Bernanke has stated that the FED intends to withdraw its 2 Trillion plus dollars of stimulus from the US Bond Markets and MBS markets come October 3, 2010. That is literally D day if they actually follow through on this threat.... Yes I call it a "threat" because thats what it is.
They are filling the void left by the destruction of the shadow bank market and when and if they withdraw this support and if the original structure has not been restored there will be a vacuum created. That sucking sound you will hear will be the last breathe of life being sucked right out of this country's already strained financial system as Mortgage Back Securties and US Bonds tank and rates skyrocket.
Monday, September 14, 2009
US Dollar 2B or not 2B
Markets are sneaky so beware of the stop running 2B pattern that seems to be ridiculously persistent in the Forex market. The mainstream media has written of the US dollar and all but seal its doom in the minds of most investors.
With Pay Option Arm mortgages now posing a new mortgage threat and commercial mortgages running a close second the deflationary story persists.
Gold sits now at $1000 and Oz and gold fever is everywhere again. Lets not forget Silver is 25% away from its correlating high with GOLD. The dollar is still no where near its 2008 lows and many emerging market currencies fail to confirm an outright dollar collapse.
Seasonally speaking this is a critical time of year with many currencies, commodities, and indices are also at critical levels that warrant close surveillance. My bias is still on the side of deflation until the charts or the facts show me something else.
With Pay Option Arm mortgages now posing a new mortgage threat and commercial mortgages running a close second the deflationary story persists.
Gold sits now at $1000 and Oz and gold fever is everywhere again. Lets not forget Silver is 25% away from its correlating high with GOLD. The dollar is still no where near its 2008 lows and many emerging market currencies fail to confirm an outright dollar collapse.
Seasonally speaking this is a critical time of year with many currencies, commodities, and indices are also at critical levels that warrant close surveillance. My bias is still on the side of deflation until the charts or the facts show me something else.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
What is Natural Gas Telling US?
Natural Gas has not been acting right at all or has it? The persistent weakness in this commodity should be a clear sign of the deflationary pressures I have been speaking about.
It can only really be telling us one of two things.
One: Every asset class out there when looked at in terms of Nat Gas are completely overvalued.
Two: Nat Gas is the buy of the century.
Given analysis of other factors in the economy I would be inclined to go with option number 1. I will say I believe Nat Gas has indeed run too far too fast to the downside, but buying Natural Gas would only be a good idea if you where hedged correctly across the entire commodity complex and other asset classes as well. However I think it would be dangerous, as it has been, to attempt to bottom fish this commodity on pure price speculation.
It can only really be telling us one of two things.
One: Every asset class out there when looked at in terms of Nat Gas are completely overvalued.
Two: Nat Gas is the buy of the century.
Given analysis of other factors in the economy I would be inclined to go with option number 1. I will say I believe Nat Gas has indeed run too far too fast to the downside, but buying Natural Gas would only be a good idea if you where hedged correctly across the entire commodity complex and other asset classes as well. However I think it would be dangerous, as it has been, to attempt to bottom fish this commodity on pure price speculation.
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